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Decentralists rule (in 10 years or so) aka I am an NMC 2004 Fencesitter!
My belief is that over time bandwidth, storage and hosting will become so easy to use and cheap that in 10 years or so, you will host everything on your own home server or servers.
Until then, there's still lots of money to be made in hosted services like Blogware, TypePad, etc.. Basically anybody who can reduce or eliminate the pain and cost of sharing your stuff like photos, text, audio, video, etc. will win big.
Why I am writing this? Well, I will be attending the New Media Consortium Summer 2004 Conference aka NMC 2004 Summer Conference at UBC this Thursday-Saturday and there's a raging debate between the Centralists, Decentralists and the Fencesitters started by the incomparable Brian Lamb, Alan Levine and D'Arcy Norman with their Weinberger inspired Small Pieces Loosely Joined wiki and presentation.
Comments
re: Decentralists rule (in 10 years or so) aka I am an NMC 2004
do you really think that managing hardware and software will be as simple as registering at a website? that is the key difference. I can architect, code, design fully interactive sites, but I still prefer to use typepad. it is just easier. it isn't about cost. it is about time and effort.
re: Decentralists rule (in 10 years or so) aka I am an NMC 2004
yes it *WILL* be that easy to manage hardware and software
we are obviously not there yet (far from it!), but in a decade or less we will be; check back in 10 years and let me know if I am right :-) !
re: Decentralists rule (in 10 years or so) aka I am an NMC 2004
Thanks for the contribution (here and on the wiki)! I look forward to talking with you tomorrow... and hopefully beyond.
re: Decentralists rule (in 10 years or so) aka I am an NMC 2004
looking forward to meeting you Brian!
see you tomorrow!
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