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all cameras will be social cameras

Nikon V1 might as well be free at $299 w/lens aka redonkulous price cuts mean desperate camera makers! One or more of Sony, Olympus, Ricoh, Pentax, or Samsung will exit the camera business in the next ten years

Submitted by Roland on Tue, 2012-12-04 17:11

Nikon V1 with kit zoom for $299 might as well be free (excellent deal for a mirrorless camera w/EVF, great auto-focus; only problem is the lens line up is not yet anywhere near complete). Points out how desperate the camera manufacturers are and how much camera oversupply there is.

I really think that one or more of Sony, Olympus, Ricoh, Pentax, or Samsung will exit the camera business in the next ten years (my prediction would be Olympus even though I love their cameras and Ricoh and perhaps Sony).

Two reasons:

  1. Too many me too cameras that aren't social cameras, and
  2. competition from cameraphones which is the only camera that most people will ever buy and use in the near future and cameraphones won't be made by "traditional camera makers"

Thom Hogan: the camera industry has started teaching customers that big discounts are the norm.

Submitted by Roland on Wed, 2012-11-21 00:03

Thom Hogan writes on ridiculous discounts on cameras from companies like Olympus and Panasonic, what he calls the JC Penney effect:

QUOTE

This is not just a Panasonic problem. Olympus has the same problem, so does Nikon, so does Canon, so does Sony, so does everyone. They all overproduced to demand, had lingering inventory when new products hit, and thus now have to discount the old product to get rid of it, eroding margins and teaching customers that the actual value of the product is far lower than the initial list price, which then devalues the new gear.

...

I'll repeat, the camera industry has started teaching customers that big discounts are the norm.

...

This is happening at every level of camera sales now, from lowest compact to FX DSLRs. We have a global oversupply of camera gear

...

Yet the Japanese companies still overproduce. Worse still, they overproduce when the yen is worth less against the dollar and Euro, then complain when they are still trying to sell those products at discounts later when the yen is worth more. 

From a customer standpoint, this is great (other than the fact that the gear you bought last year is worth less than 50% of its cost now, so you won't be getting much back on selling used gear). We're getting supremely good new gear at very low prices. But it's also bankrupting the camera manufacturing industry

END QUOTE

I am loving my $200 Olympus E-PL ($250 included the kit zoom which although bulky is a decent lens; check out my E-PL1 pics on flickr!) and the VF-3 EVF and the Panasonic 20mm f1.7 prime lens. Still a great camera even though it's 2 years old and obsolete. I am buying into the Micro 4/3 eco-system not into the E-PL1 itself and I am banking on the price of what I really want, the weather sealed OM-D going down to $600 from $1300 in a couple of years!

Is this sustainable for the camera manufacturers? I guess not.

Does this leave them open to disruption from somebody who can produce a truly social camera with apps, sensors and connectivity? Definitely!

Cisco Flip débacle: Social Cameras must have wireless connectivity & magic fairy dust won't turn Enterprise companies into consumer companies

Submitted by Roland on Thu, 2011-04-14 19:42

Cisco Flip débacle lessons:

  • Social Cameras must have wireless connectivity (I like Dave Winer's crazy good Social Camera idea but there's lots of room for innovation here that Cisco, Nokia and many others have missed and that companies like Color, Eye-fi et al are trying)  &
  • Magic fairy dust won't turn Enterprise companies like Cisco (or the late lamented mismanaged Nortel) into consumer companies :-)
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