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2010 Social Media Predictions aka Know your rights, aggregate & own your stuff and back it up

I have been blogging for 10 years, started Dec 1999 (dreadnet.editthispage.com which sadly died a few years back due to my own negligence) so some  2010 social media long term predictions and gratuitous advice which again is worth what you paid for it

Social Media 2010 predictions and gratuitous advice:

  1. Flickr, Facebook, Twitter, Yelp, Tumblr and other walled gardens are over in the long term; an open solution will replace them in 5 years or less.
  2. Don't be afraid to use and experiment with the walled gardens but recognize that your stuff can be deleted at any time and unless you have backed it up to an open format like HTML, it won't last forever (most likely scenarios: service goes out of business or your account is deleted for an arbitrary reason). I wouldn't shed a tear if all my tweets were deleted, YMMV. If you have fun with the walled gardens, get your domain and start a blog, videoblog,podcast, etc., you won't regret having an online presence you own and control
  3. If you care about your closed garden stuff, back it up to an open format. If you aren't geeky enough to figure this out, ask a geek, there's lots of them, just don't ask me :-)
  4. Have a "hook" and nurture and grow it. Not good enough in 2010 to be a jack of all trades social media whatevah :-) You actually need to *know* something. Most people do (they just don't realize it!) so that's not a problem.
  5. Don't know why I have to write this in 2010 department: Don't trust reviews or content on Urban Spoon, Yelp (i like the idea of yelp & other aggregators  but in practise most of the reviews are shall we say not helpful), Gowalla, Facebook etc unless you know the person in real life or have read their stuff over a period of time. Most restaurant reviews like most content on the Internet are wildly biased but that's a good thing because objectivity in food reviews is ridiculous.
  6. Get your most valued content out of the walled gardens and your email (email rocks but it's not a place for long term knowledge storage and retrieval) and back it up. The best way to back up is to put the content in an open format like HTML on your own domain and backup all the stuff on your domain. Again, ask a geek. And really most people's stuff that is truly valuable is not a lot, myself included :-)  e.g. I bet my best emails, best photos, videos and blog posts for the last 5 years could fit on 1 DVD!

N97 Review - Can't recommend it to others but I would buy one with my own money

N97 Review Thrilling Review Conclusion - only recommended for S60 geeks

If I had money which I don't due to transitions in employment and the need to pay $8000 for a new roof, I would buy an N97 NAM with my own money. But, unfortunately (it pains me to slag Nokia since I desperately want Apple to have viable competition longterm and slagging Nokia is like slagging my first love since I loved my first cameraphone, the 1 megapixel Nokia 7610 I bought in 2004!)  I can not  recommend the Nokia N97 for other people i.e. people who are not already S60 geeks.

Buy an iPhone 3GS instead. Sure the camera on the 3GS s*cks compared to the N82, N95, N97, N86, etc but the software is a joy to use and the touch focus is something that Nokia should have done first. and there is a viable useful app ecosystem for the iPhone unlike Nokia (sure it may develop but there is no sign of it).

The N97 works for me because of these apps (in no order):

  • ShoZu - Sorry Pixelpipe your service is unusable until Nokia fixes Share Online, sharing only 30 items at a time is a non starter for me.  The unreliable Share Online which has no cues about whether a photo has been uploaded already is a major annoyance.)
  • Gravity - Gravity rocks, it's one of the best Twitter clients on any platform and is continually being improved! Gravity makes the N97 QWERTY keyboard useful instead of a frill. Without gravity, I'd be content with the superior camera of the N86 8MP and pecking away in g*d aweful T9)
  • Nokia Sports Tracker is a must have for tracking your bicycle rides, walks,etc. It is full of annoyances like not remembering any of your preferences (I always want to share my Maps with everybody, please don't ask OVER AND OVER again) but works well and is very useful and works in the background unlike the iPhone trackers all of which are useless because the iPhone doesn't allow 3rd party apps to multi-task
  • QIK, video streaming need I say more. It just works and keeps getting improved!

If you love the above apps or any of the other few (there are about 50 good apps on S60, on iPhone there are several hundred good apps!) good apps on S60, then that probably means you are an S60 geek and then the only choice in 2009 is either the N86 8MP or N97. However once a 5 megaxel iPhone with decent video comes out in 2010, then I fear Nokia at its current rate of stagnation won't even be able to keep S60 geeks like myself happy.

Why normal people should NOT buy  the N97:

  • the UI is impossible to use for non S60 geeks, hand the N97 and iPhone 3GS to a newbie and may G*d have mercy on your soul :-) ! Can't stand S60 constantly nattering at you asking whether you want to connect or not, of course I do ! touch inconsistently works from screen to screen, app to app and a host of other UX issues
  • the whole thing feels like a work in progress e.g. widgets are a great proof of concept but in reality aren't really that useful, e.g. the twitter and facebook widgets don't display enough useful info and autoscroll, they just display the last 10 or so status updates, these widgets feel like "hello world" rather than actually useful
  • instability - e.g. I reset the phone via *#7370#, set the camera to sequence multiple shot mode and take 16 pictures and the camera app freezes; if Nokia can't get their camera app to work in 2009 no wonder ShoZu also has stability issues
  • there's not enough RAM - even if you install all the apps on the built in 32GB mass memory you still run out of RAM

 

The N97 ain't my N999 concept but it's closer

On the night before I receive my N97 from Nokia WOM World for a brief trial, just for fun I looked back at my N999 concept/vision from December 1, 2008. And what the heck here's the N999 concept updated for July 2009 (notable updates are in bold):

  1. screen with as many pixels as the 5800 Tube or iPhone (sorry but QVGA doesn't cut it in 2009!)
  2. S60 simplified and fixed as Rui describes
  3. 5 megapixel camera with cover and Xenon flash with 3x optical zoom and 640x480 30fps video (basically re-use the awesome N82 camera hardware and software and combine with the N93 optical zoom)
  4. Quad band GSM and 3G (i.e. works on Rogers and AT&T in North America AND European 3G out of the box just like the N85, no funky North American model)
  5. Built in ShoZu (with 10MB limit removed for 3G and WiFi, make the limit 50-200MB for 3G and WiFi) - killer app for photographers and videobloggers - Qik is built  into the N97 why not ShoZu? (I can't stand Share Online's limit of 6 photos at a time since I take over 50 a day; hope it's removed on the N97)
  6. Bult-in Qik (killer app for videobloggers!) - Qik is built  into the N97 can't wait to try it!
  7. Awesome web browser (Nokia's Web Kit browser was great in 2006, it is now far behind Apple's)
  8. Lots of available RAM (as much as the N95 8GB please!), 8GB storage on built-in card - Reviews are mixed on the N97, sounds like it has a lot of RAM (more than the N95 8GB)  but with widgets it takes up a lot more. - I doubt I will use widgets!
  9. Built in Nokia viNes to take advantage of Nokia's great GPS hardware (killer GPS app!) - viNes apears to be dead. Nokia Sports Tracker appears to be alive, so I'd rather have that built-in
  10. Built in Twitter App i.e. built in Gravity

Now I know the above list is not possible given today's processors and batteries but in that case I can live without optical zoom! Everything else is doable as far as I can tell.

I still don't need:

  1. QWERTY keyboard - I'd rather have an awesome camera and flash than a touch or QWERTY keyboard. And for me touch keyboards are just as good as QWERTY.
  2. Email (Email is dead to me (ok email isn't dead but my resolution is to take any email thread  that I need to keep that has more than 2 replies to a wiki or blog); I continue to use it  for work and to communicate with "normal" folks!) - If the browser is as good as the iPhone's, then webmail clients work just fine.
  3. Touch (would be nice, but not convinced Nokia has the software chops for this; I am not interested in S60 transmogrified with touch, I would prefer touch to be part of a totally revamped user interface that's NOT S60.) - Unfortunately it appears that Nokia's current touch interface s*cks. I hope I am proven wrong by my N97 trial.
  4. Micro SD card slot
  5. Calendar (would be nice but that's what my laptop is for :-) !) - Again with a good enough browser a web client would be good enough)
  6. IM (Twitter is IM enough for me and I am fine with using it in the browser)
  7. VOIP is dead to me except for Skype
  8. MMS - I am not convinced I need it, I can always use ShoZu email photos :-) but I was wrong about SMS (so maybe I am wrong about MMS) - I am pretty sure I am wrong about MMS and I am pretty sure (unfortunately) I will be MMSing my relatives with pictures since they all finally seem to have MMS plans and devices and none of my luddite :-) relatives still use flickr or any of the other public or private photosharing sites!


 

Gravity S60 Twitter client is the exception that proves the rule

Gravity s60 twitter client Screenshot0069

Gravity, the fantastic S60 Twitter client proves that German S60 developers continue to rule the moribund S60 apps ecosystem (unfortunately the S60 app industry is a cottage industry compared to the iPhone app industry). First, profimail ruled the world (back in 2004 when I bought my first S60 phone and thought the mobile email was relevant, just say no to mobile email, just say yes to short form customized mobile two way communication like Twitter) and now gravity rules. And if you don't believe me that the iPhone app industry is clearly dominant over the S60 app industry than that's your prerogative and I'd have to wish you the best of luck making money with your S60 apps!

Behold the awesomeness of Gravity in my Gravity Screenshot set on flickr!

I am on the list of Vancouver's Top 10 Twitterers!?!

When I first read this on the 6S Marketing SEO Blog, I thought oh well another list that only online people will care about. Then I found that it was published in the Vancouver Sun. Interesting crossover! Not sure how important these lists are but they are fun! What I would say (as always) that expressing yourself online for business, and fun (not in that order!) is now more important than ever. Luckily, this is now easier than ever!

QUOTE [From List of the top 20 'Twitterers' in Vancouver unveiled] via 6S Marketing SEO Blog


List of the top 20 'Twitterers' in Vancouver unveiled
Marketing entrepreneur looked at how people were interacting
Gillian Shaw, Vancouver Sun
Published: Thursday, November 13, 2008

http://twitter.com/todmaffin -- Todd Maffin is a social media strategist, speaker, broadcaster, writer and blogger

http://twitter.com/techvibes -- Techvibes is an online community for tech professionals in Vancouver with more than 50,000 members

http://twitter.com/dbarefoot -- Darren Barefoot, a Vancouver writer and marketer whose blog at www.darrenbarefoot.com along with his presence on Flickr and Twitter draws about 10,000 readers daily.

http://twitter.com/kk -- Krug Krug, photographer,technologist and author based in Vancouver

http://twitter.com/wilhelmus -- William Bakker is director of eBusiness at Tourism British Columbia

http://twitter.com/ColleenCoplick -- Collen Coplick, web site at www.missmanifesto.com

http://twitter.com/tyfn -- Phillip Jeffrey, grad student in Interdisciplinary Studies at the University of British Columbia.

http://twitter.com/jennmae -- Jenn Lowther, social media strategist and blogger

http://twitter.com/rtanglao -- Roland Tanglao, blogging since 1999, has over 30,000 photos on flickr and is one of the founders of Bryght, a Web 2.0 startup

http://twitter.com/trishussey -- Tris Hussey, writer, photographer and social media consultant

http://twitter.com/sjagger -- tech entrepreneur and co-founder of reachd.com and ubertor.com

http://twitter.com/arieanna -- Arieanna Schweber, entertainment editor with b5media, online producer for @starked, blogger and photographer

http://twitter.com/shanegibson -- Shane Gibson author, speaker, blogger, podcaster, sales trainer

http://twitter.com/megfowler -- Meg Fowler, writer and blogger

http://twitter.com/maurar -- Maura Rodgers, entrepreneur, Vancouver tech evangelist,

http://twitter.com/johnchowdotcom -- John Chow, dot com mogul and founder of hardware tech site, The TechZone.

http://twitter.com/Shannonyelland -- Shannon Yelland, online marketing manager for Sitemasher, blogger

Source: 6S Marketing

at http://www.6smarketing.com/blog/the_top_20_twitterers_in_vancouver/% 20/

END QUOTE

I no longer customize my S60 devices or my Mac except in cosmetic ways

Had the pleasure of meeting James at Nokia Open Lab 08 and it's interesting (Agile Messenger!?! IM on my phone, no thanks, I'd personally rather use Twitter and Jaiku) to see his (mobile) desert island desktop for his S60 devices.

I personally no longer customize the home screen of my S60 devices just like I no longer customize my Mac that much (or I customize it in cosmetic ways like change the desktop, I don't do that on S60 for fear of using precious memory something which we will look back on in 5 years and laugh that we worried about memory!).

I find S60 too unstable (I blame ShoZu and S60 memory management; don't get me wrong I can't live without ShoZu but after a while I simply have to reset (usually a warm reset using *#7780# sometimes a hard reset using *#7370#) all my S60 devices which means I lose my customizations. I am sure I am an outlier here; I think it has something to do with posting dozens of photos a day from ShoZu :-) ! Yes I am addicted!)

QUOTE [From AAS Feature: Desert Island Desktop, with James Whatley]

Whatley's main role at SpinVox is to look after their Social Media Strategy, and that means he is plugged into many of the fast moving Web 2.0 sites, so it's no surprise to see Jaiku as the first application - he's one of the most prolific Jaiku'ers on the service (http://whatleydude.jaiku.com/).

There are a number of built in applications here, and one click away from Jaiku are the Nokia Web Browser and Contacts applications. The contacts application is probably the biggest 'social application' on any handset (oh don't mock, it lets you email people, call them, keep notes on them, group them together - that's just like Facebook), so keeping it close to hand is high up in his thinking.

Pretty much everyone I asked had a web browser in some form on their launcher, and Whatley is no exception. "It's the first application I open up whenever I pick up my handset", he explains. I suspect that he's checking out his other social networks and keeping an eye on the SpinVox blog as well.

Communicating online is a mainstay of the quick launch apps, and the inclusion of Agile Messenger (www.agilemobile.com) solidifies that view. Offering access to most of the popular IM platforms, including MSN and AOL, this has been on whatever handset Whatley has been using for a few years. "I purchased a lifetime licence and genuinely could not live without it."

The phone is also his main PDA/Organiser, but not through the built in PIM apps. Whatley has chosen to use Epocware's Handy Calendar over the regular S60 offerings

END QUOTE

2008 Random Predictions

Richard said I have until January 15 :-) so here goes some randomly ordered predictions which are worth what you paid for them!

  1. Social Media microniching and microcontent-fication continues to grow rapidly. Twitter and Seesmic are just the beginning. Old skool bloggers like myself continue to blog and to write large pieces but even for us it's the exception rather than the rule.
  2. Drupal fervent, creativity, acquisition and expansion continues because Drupal 6 will unleash the creativity of the world. Go Acquia go! Go Raincity go!
  3. Apple introduces 3G iPhone not at Macworld but in the spring. Rogers finally brings the iPhone to Canada in time for Christmas 2008. They won't be onboard for the Apple Spring announcement because they still don't "get it" , but they will have no choice for Christmas 2008 since all of the 3G handsets Rogers sells s*ck and nobody will buy them since unlike the iPhone they are unusable and no better than non 3G sets feature wise. [Hope I am wrong about Rogers!]
  4. Speaking of "get"-ting it. Translink (or whatever they are called now), start to get it. True feedback comes from BOTH their old very slow 20th century skool approach (e.g. Translink Listens is a farce for the Internet Generation because you a) never see the results or b) know anything about the people behind the very vague and not useful polls but ok for the old fogeys) AND from social media like an official blog, a flickr account and facebook (heck maybe even twitter and Seesmic: e.g. twitter-ing system outages and delays or facebook statusing them would be a lot better than their current very slow 20th century haphazard way of telling us the SkyTrain is down or buses are delayed). The unofficial Translink Attendance at Transit Camp was very encouraging; I'm predicting this type of stuff will become officially supported in 2008.
  5. Apple sub MacBook. It won't be the return of the Newton and it won't be a big iPhone, it'll be cool (small, instant on and useful) and again it won't be introduced at MacWorld. [Again hope I am wrong here! Hope it comes sooner]
  6. The era of dumb non presence aware "high ceremony" audio and video is over. Go SightSpeed, go Lypp, go Iotum! All three will prosper in 2008. Skype will too since they are ubiquitous for both.
  7. Nokia will continue to have the best hardware for mobile devices but unfortunately not the best software. An awesome N93 video cameraphone successor will be introduced that again only early adopters will use and find usable.
  8. No usable mobile interface that is nearly as usable as Apple's touch interface emerges in 2008. Fingers crossed for 2009 [hope i am wrong about this one too]
  9. Truly Open Hardware combined with truly Open Software - the trend started by Open Moko, Chumby (I've bought a chumby and am mulling some fun but extremely bogus hacks for it :-) !) and Bug Labs continues. Hopefully someone will introduce something like The Bug that is less clunky and uses a more malleable dynamic language like Ruby or Python (I am sure somebody will hack The Bug to use Ruby or Python or some such but it's not the same as having something designed from the ground up to use Ruby or Python as its development environment rather than clunky, "strait-jacketed by typing" and verbose Java). [and yes even though it's "clunky" and Java, I am saving my pennies for my own Bug! ]
  10. Canon introduces an ISO 25600 camera to compete with the Nikon D3 and a 5D replacement with sensor cleaning and clean, usable ISO 6400. I'm saving my pennies (coz I'll never like flash photography although I love the Strobist).
  11. Nokia or somebody smart buys ShoZu. The rest of the world will start to see the advantage of a "straight to the web from the camera" workflow that ShoZu pioneered (Eye-Fi is inferior to ShoZu because it doesn't suspend/resume upon connectivity interruption/resumption but it's good enough and it works everywhere and I am getting one of their cards pronto! See my earlier Eye-Fi plug). Why not build ShoZu into micro SD cards ? Just a thought :-) !
  12. 3G and WiFi are now mature enough for a "straight to the web from the camera" workflow for video too. Why should you have to wait? Why can't video be uploaded directly to the web from your camera like you can with photos with ShoZu and Eye-Fi? There really is no reason other than file size and early adopters will start doing that in 2008.

SMS is dead - Twitter proves it

SMS sucks and twitter proves it. When a well funded startup like Twitter which is full of smart people can't get SMS to scale, then something is wrong. And the something that is wrong is wait for it .... the carriers. The carriers control SMS which is why it sucks. If SMS were NEA it wouldn't suck but it is not so good-bye and good riddance.

SMS is dead. Maybe not today maybe not tomorrow but as soon as we have flat rate affordable mobile internet. The replacement will be something over good 'ole IP. Probably Jabber.

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