Discovered: Jan 12, 2026 17:05 (UTC) ME:: tl;dr AI: AGI is more like twitter than jet engines in that it is fed by people and not predictable and not apparent from inside the software industry how others use it. But how general is it? And I agree, where do we go from here? Still skeptical but super thought provoking piece ; Robin Sloan:: AGI is here (and I feel fine)

QUOTE:

It’s not that the com­pa­nies don’t know any­thing — they know a lot—but rather that a reg­ular user can have an expe­ri­ence with these sys­tems, an idea about them, that is not avail­able to even the deepest, dankest, insider-iest insider. I contend that reg­ular users are having such expe­ri­ences & ideas all the time.

I think this is just how these sys­tems work, when they have so many dif­ferent people using them for so many dif­ferent rea­sons. It’s pretty weird, com­pared to other products. After all, the com­pany that man­u­fac­tures jet engines & sells them to five cus­tomers can rea­son­ably claim to under­stand the uses of those engines.

That’s all to say, for all the math & matériel involved in their care & feeding, the big models are more like Twitter than they are like jet engines, & this whole thing was a sur­prise anyway — from which no one has quite recovered — so I will defend vig­or­ously the right of any­body/every­body to reflect & opine on AI’s prop­er­ties & potential, & to declare, when it seems obvious: AGI is here.

Recently, I have been reading a lot about the early his­tory of per­sonal com­puters, the 1970s & 1980s. (This book was wonderful, because its present — the pin­nacle from which it sur­veys a tumul­tuous his­tory — is … 1984.) It’s been inter­esting to dis­cover that many of the visions & promises of that era “rhyme” with the visions & promises of the present boom. It’s clear that Bay Area tech is, if not one con­tin­uous project, 1957-2026, then for sure one con­tin­uous culture. (I happen to think it’s one con­tin­uous project.)

The pace is familiar, too: hot new com­pa­nies were appearing every month, fading just as fast. Yes, the dollar amounts were smaller — the com­puter was still a niche product — but the feel­ings really seem to be the same.

And … the visions of that era were sub­stan­tially realized ! Today, every­body really does own a per­sonal com­puter, or some­thing like one. Everybody really is con­nected to a global infor­ma­tion network, or some­thing like one.

I’m an avid user of both my per­sonal com­puter & the global infor­ma­tion network, & I observe that we appear not to live in utopia. The and … ? of those inven­tions roars in our ears.

Today, every­body really can call upon AGI, or some­thing like it: a wildly gen­eral com­puter program. I mean ! Wow!

The ques­tion, always, forever: what now?

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