Steve nails it! It's not about things that you passively search or consume. It's about what you actively pay attention to: who you subscribe to, what you blog about, what you link to, what you bookmark, what you pay for, what you actively listen to or watch, what you recommend, etc.! Go Steve go!
Nobody can say which individual players will survive or prosper, but in aggregate the news is out. How to say this kindly? Here's one for Ed Brill: Like Notes, print is dead. And like print, page views are dead. Like Notes, print and the page view model will go down fighting. It will take a long time, as everyone still locked into Notes can tell you.
What wins? Attention. Who, what, and how long. It will take on, supplement, and eventually, supplant search. Information will search for you, not the other way around. How many people, once they switched to AOL on Live8 Day, went back? The same number who switched back from RSS. My friend still hasn't fired up Bloglines, or Rojo, or iTunes for that matter. But he will. That I'm sure of. It's a matter of time.