2017 Prediction -- 2004's "nobody will take pictures with their phone" is 2017's "it will take decades for EVs to take >50% market share"
Pontifications
Check back on January 1, 2036 to see if I am correct :-)
- By EVs I mean ALL electric vehicles (including buses, trams, subways, trains, cars, trucks, everything!). I don’t count hybrids like the Prius (because it has an ICE) but I do count things like the BMWs with the “assist” engine.
- If anything this is conservative and will happen sooner. It took smartphones 3 years, why should it take more than 19 years for electric cars; we already have all of the pieces just like smartphones.