Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee Meeting

Likely scenarios over the next 12 months
1. (More likely) Evolution within Omicron BA.2 to further increase intrinsic
transmission and to escape from Omicron-derived immunity. This
scenario sees lower attack rates with 2022-2023 epidemic driven by drift
+ waning + seasonality.
2. (Less likely) Another Omicron-like emergence event in which a chronic
infection initiated in ~2021 incubates a new wildly divergent virus. This
scenario sees high attack rates with epidemic driven by variant
emergence.